Market Information

Volatility yesterday after the FOMC statement kind of said rates will go higher, also kind of said the Fed will be “patient”, the Yellen said the FOMC will not increase rates in the4 next two FOMC meetings. The policy statement had something for everyone with the usual confusion left to markets to decide what the Fed will do and when. The reaction yesterday afternoon generated a lot of volatility in stock markets and in the MBS markets while treasures were a comparatively subdued but rates did increase. The DJIA finally ended up 288.00 after wide trading ranges as investors tried to handicap the Fed’s statement. This morning the US stock indexes at 8:00 were trading up 250 points on the DJIA and the other indexes also strong.

 

Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were a little better than consensus, claims declined 6K to 289K, back to levels we had in early November. The consensus was for claims to be unchanged on the week. The 4 week average decreased to 298.750 from 299,500. In the last six weeks claims have held rather steady with not much change from week to week and mostly under 300K. No direct reaction to the slightly better report as markets were already well extended from yesterday’s closes. Claims were the lowest in six weeks.

 

Putin held a press conference to reassure Russians on Thursday that the country’s economic troubles will pass in no more than two years, saying at his annual news conference that the government and central bank are responding appropriately, though a bit belatedly. Putin blamed the US and the EU and accused the west of trying to disarm Russia and said the current economic troubles “are payment for our independence, our sovereignty.” The ruble has collapsed this week. Sanctions and the fall of crude oil is taking the Russian economy to its knees; it started with the Ukraine invasion and has become worse by the day.

 

The DJIA opened +139 at 9:30, NASDAQ +59, S&P +19. The 10 yr note yield up 6 bps to 2.20% testing its 20 day average. 30 yr MBS price at 9:30 -17 bps from yesterday’s close and -42 bps from 9:30 yesterday.

 

Two data points at 10:00; Dec Philadelphia Fed business index was expected at 25 from 40.8 in Nov. The index at 24.5 close enough; the 40.8 in Nov was an anomaly; the Oct index was 20.8. Nov leading economic indicators was expected +0.6%, as reported +0.6%; Oct LEI revised from +0.9% to +0.6%. Neither report had any impact on trading.

 

Another consumer confidence index out early this morning; the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index climbed to 41.7 in the period ended Dec. 14, the highest reading since mid-November 2007, from 41.3 the week before. Monthly views on economic expectations rose to match a two-year high.

 

Market volatility in most markets, including crude that is slightly higher this morning. All global markets improving today after the FOMC statement yesterday was more dovish than what was expected. The Fed will increase rates according to Yellen but she left a wide open door that the decision to increase rates is still dependent on economic performance and employment. Germany’s 10 yr bund this morning up 8 bps from yesterday at 0.63%. The increase in rates yesterday and this morning is denting our bullish models, the 10 at its 20 day average and momentum has ebbed quite a bit on the bullish outlook. All key markets will continue the high level of volatility, interday and intraday. Time to get on the sideline, let this uncertainty currently gripping markets subside.